— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
53¢
nbm
44¢
wn2
41¢
aifs
35¢
eps
16¢
hres
14¢
icon
10¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F2¢
58–59°F7¢
60–61°F17¢
62–63°F25¢
64–65°F24¢
66–67°F16¢
68–69°F6¢
70–71°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,463 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.9 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDTW-20261023-TMAX-GE69 · opened 2026-10-17T15:24:50+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape