— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
55¢
wn2
52¢
aifs
44¢
icon
26¢
hres
25¢
eps
24¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F2¢
58–59°F6¢
60–61°F12¢
62–63°F19¢
64–65°F22¢
66–67°F19¢
68–69°F12¢
70–71°F6¢
72–73°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDTW-20261024-TMAX-GE67 · opened 2026-10-17T07:44:31+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape