— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
78¢
aifs
67¢
nbm
55¢
eps
31¢
hres
18¢
icon
18¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F2¢
62–63°F4¢
64–65°F9¢
66–67°F14¢
68–69°F18¢
70–71°F18¢
72–73°F15¢
74–75°F10¢
76–77°F5¢
78–79°F2¢
80–81°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDTW-20261025-TMAX-GE67 · opened 2026-10-18T08:01:21+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape