— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
65¢
hres
60¢
nbm
54¢
aifs
47¢
eps
46¢
icon
22¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F1¢
58–59°F3¢
60–61°F6¢
62–63°F10¢
64–65°F14¢
66–67°F17¢
68–69°F16¢
70–71°F13¢
72–73°F9¢
74–75°F5¢
76–77°F2¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDTW-20261026-TMAX-GE67 · opened 2026-10-19T07:33:13+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape