— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
83¢
wn2
81¢
aifs
67¢
icon
60¢
hres
59¢
nbm
52¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
48–49°F1¢
50–51°F2¢
52–53°F3¢
54–55°F6¢
56–57°F9¢
58–59°F12¢
60–61°F15¢
62–63°F15¢
64–65°F13¢
66–67°F10¢
68–69°F7¢
70–71°F4¢
72–73°F2¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,387 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.601 vs climatology 8.75.
Receipts
prop id WP-KDTW-20261027-TMAX-GE59 · opened 2026-10-20T10:53:40+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape