daily prop · Newark, NJ · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Sat Oct 17

Newark stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 56°F · Sat Oct 17

settled · observed 61

golden 0d out whiplash on the tape

56°F is the bottom-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present).

Canonical settlement condition: High ≤ 56°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop went golden 0.5 days before settlement; traded as high as 92¢ and busted; crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

nbm		87¢
ndfd		76¢
aifs		18¢
wn2		17¢
hres		8¢
rrfs		0¢
eps		0¢
icon		0¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KEWR-20261017-TMAX-LE56 · opened 2026-10-13T08:02:28+00:00 · settled 2026-10-18T14:06:37+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape