daily prop · Newark, NJ · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Sun Oct 18

Newark high ≥ 57°F · Sun Oct 18

YES

settled · observed 60

longshot hit whiplash on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 57°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop traded as low as 4¢ and still hit; crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		96¢
hrrr		92¢
aifs		92¢
eps		78¢
hres		68¢
rrfs		67¢
icon		61¢
nbm		59¢
ndfd		56¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KEWR-20261018-TMAX-GE57 · opened 2026-10-11T07:31:31+00:00 · settled 2026-10-19T13:39:03+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape