— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
80¢
hres
69¢
aifs
66¢
nbm
54¢
eps
48¢
icon
47¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
54–55°F1¢
56–57°F2¢
58–59°F6¢
60–61°F13¢
62–63°F19¢
64–65°F22¢
66–67°F18¢
68–69°F11¢
70–71°F5¢
72–73°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KEWR-20261019-TMAX-GE63 · opened 2026-10-12T07:47:40+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape