— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
30¢
wn2
6¢
hres
4¢
aifs
3¢
ndfd
2¢
eps
1¢
nbm
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
54–55°F1¢
56–57°F3¢
58–59°F8¢
60–61°F14¢
62–63°F19¢
64–65°F21¢
66–67°F17¢
68–69°F10¢
70–71°F5¢
72–73°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KEWR-20261019-TMAX-GE76 · opened 2026-10-13T08:02:29+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape