— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
70¢
wn2
68¢
aifs
58¢
nbm
56¢
eps
50¢
hres
28¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F2¢
60–61°F10¢
62–63°F26¢
64–65°F32¢
66–67°F21¢
68–69°F7¢
70–71°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,561 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.512 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KEWR-20261021-TMAX-GE67 · opened 2026-10-14T10:32:03+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape