— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
53¢
nbm
46¢
wn2
37¢
icon
31¢
eps
26¢
aifs
24¢
hres
16¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
52–53°F1¢
54–55°F3¢
56–57°F9¢
58–59°F18¢
60–61°F25¢
62–63°F23¢
64–65°F14¢
66–67°F6¢
68–69°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KEWR-20261023-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-10-17T04:40:50+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape