daily prop · Newark, NJ · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Sat Oct 24

Newark high ≥ 60°F · Sat Oct 24

80¢

american -411 · decimal 1.24

on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 60°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		97¢
aifs		93¢
nbm		77¢
icon		63¢
eps		60¢
hres		57¢
ndfd		54¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

54–55°F2¢

56–57°F5¢

58–59°F12¢

60–61°F19¢

62–63°F22¢

64–65°F19¢

66–67°F12¢

68–69°F5¢

70–71°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KEWR-20261024-TMAX-GE60 · opened 2026-10-18T14:55:26+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape