— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
83¢
wn2
82¢
ndfd
54¢
icon
49¢
hres
38¢
nbm
32¢
eps
20¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
54–55°F2¢
56–57°F5¢
58–59°F12¢
60–61°F19¢
62–63°F22¢
64–65°F19¢
66–67°F12¢
68–69°F5¢
70–71°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KEWR-20261024-TMAX-GE62 · opened 2026-10-17T07:43:55+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape