— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
85¢
aifs
79¢
icon
66¢
nbm
56¢
ndfd
54¢
hres
39¢
eps
36¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F1¢
58–59°F2¢
60–61°F6¢
62–63°F12¢
64–65°F18¢
66–67°F21¢
68–69°F19¢
70–71°F12¢
72–73°F6¢
74–75°F2¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KEWR-20261025-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-10-19T15:13:11+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape