daily prop · Houston, TX · Plains & South Central · settles Sat Oct 17

Houston high ≥ 78°F · Sat Oct 17

settled · observed 74

whiplash on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 78°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop traded as high as 93¢ and busted; crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

eps		100¢
hres		76¢
ndfd		54¢
icon		51¢
nbm		48¢
wn2		43¢
aifs		14¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KIAH-20261017-TMAX-GE78 · opened 2026-10-12T04:01:46+00:00 · settled 2026-10-18T14:06:41+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape