daily prop · Houston, TX · Plains & South Central · settles Sat Oct 17

Houston high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 17

settled · observed 74

whiplash on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 80°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop traded as high as 88¢ and busted; crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

eps		93¢
ndfd		55¢
nbm		53¢
hres		5¢
icon		4¢
aifs		2¢
wn2		1¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KIAH-20261017-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-11T15:11:58+00:00 · settled 2026-10-18T14:06:43+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape