— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
74¢
nbm
68¢
aifs
62¢
wn2
59¢
ndfd
56¢
hres
49¢
rrfs
41¢
icon
22¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F4¢
78–79°F13¢
80–81°F26¢
82–83°F29¢
84–85°F19¢
86–87°F7¢
88–89°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,459 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.516 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KIAH-20261020-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-10-17T04:42:13+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape