— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
78¢
eps
77¢
aifs
60¢
hres
60¢
ndfd
56¢
wn2
54¢
rrfs
51¢
icon
39¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
78–79°F2¢
80–81°F9¢
82–83°F22¢
84–85°F31¢
86–87°F24¢
88–89°F10¢
90–91°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,410 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.692 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KIAH-20261021-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-19T04:31:10+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape