— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
25¢
ndfd
19¢
hres
16¢
icon
16¢
aifs
14¢
eps
11¢
wn2
11¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
80–81°F3¢
82–83°F11¢
84–85°F24¢
86–87°F30¢
88–89°F21¢
90–91°F9¢
92–93°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,361 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.86.
Receipts
prop id WP-KIAH-20261022-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-10-15T07:50:07+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape