— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
41¢
icon
30¢
aifs
22¢
ndfd
22¢
hres
21¢
wn2
15¢
eps
12¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
84–85°F7¢
86–87°F31¢
88–89°F43¢
90–91°F17¢
92–93°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,312 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.165 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KIAH-20261023-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-10-16T14:19:50+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape