— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
56¢
wn2
29¢
eps
20¢
aifs
16¢
hres
15¢
icon
4¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F3¢
78–79°F8¢
80–81°F15¢
82–83°F21¢
84–85°F22¢
86–87°F16¢
88–89°F9¢
90–91°F4¢
92–93°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,335 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.605 vs climatology 8.757.
Receipts
prop id WP-KIAH-20261026-TMAX-GE88 · opened 2026-10-19T07:33:28+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape