— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
71¢
wn2
67¢
aifs
63¢
hres
56¢
ndfd
56¢
eps
52¢
icon
49¢
nbm
25¢
hrrr
13¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F2¢
70–71°F9¢
72–73°F23¢
74–75°F31¢
76–77°F23¢
78–79°F9¢
80–81°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KICT-20261021-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-18T14:55:58+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape