— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
30¢
nbm
14¢
eps
12¢
ndfd
10¢
icon
6¢
aifs
5¢
wn2
2¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F2¢
62–63°F5¢
64–65°F8¢
66–67°F12¢
68–69°F14¢
70–71°F15¢
72–73°F14¢
74–75°F11¢
76–77°F8¢
78–79°F5¢
80–81°F2¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KICT-20261026-TMAX-GE79 · opened 2026-10-19T07:33:23+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape