daily prop · Indianapolis, IN · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Mon Oct 19

Indianapolis runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Mon Oct 19

2¢

american +5163 · decimal 52.63

on the tape

78°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 78°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

icon		13¢
wn2		10¢
hres		8¢
aifs		7¢
ndfd		3¢
nbm		1¢
eps		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

60–61°F1¢

62–63°F4¢

64–65°F13¢

66–67°F24¢

68–69°F28¢

70–71°F20¢

72–73°F8¢

74–75°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.

Receipts

prop id WP-KIND-20261019-TMAX-GE78 · opened 2026-10-12T07:48:27+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape