— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
90¢
wn2
88¢
rrfs
61¢
ndfd
56¢
hres
54¢
eps
54¢
nbm
41¢
icon
38¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F5¢
68–69°F16¢
70–71°F29¢
72–73°F28¢
74–75°F15¢
76–77°F4¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KIND-20261021-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-10-15T15:34:14+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape