— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
55¢
ndfd
53¢
aifs
48¢
wn2
47¢
hres
20¢
icon
14¢
eps
12¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F1¢
64–65°F5¢
66–67°F12¢
68–69°F21¢
70–71°F24¢
72–73°F20¢
74–75°F11¢
76–77°F4¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KIND-20261023-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-17T04:41:52+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape