— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
81¢
aifs
66¢
ndfd
54¢
nbm
44¢
icon
30¢
eps
22¢
hres
7¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F1¢
64–65°F3¢
66–67°F8¢
68–69°F14¢
70–71°F20¢
72–73°F20¢
74–75°F16¢
76–77°F10¢
78–79°F4¢
80–81°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KIND-20261024-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-18T04:14:08+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape