— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
90¢
aifs
81¢
icon
60¢
hres
53¢
eps
40¢
ndfd
25¢
nbm
21¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F2¢
68–69°F5¢
70–71°F11¢
72–73°F16¢
74–75°F20¢
76–77°F18¢
78–79°F14¢
80–81°F8¢
82–83°F4¢
84–85°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KIND-20261025-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-18T11:02:48+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape