— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
81¢
wn2
57¢
nbm
54¢
hres
38¢
eps
30¢
icon
23¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F3¢
68–69°F6¢
70–71°F11¢
72–73°F15¢
74–75°F18¢
76–77°F17¢
78–79°F13¢
80–81°F8¢
82–83°F4¢
84–85°F2¢
86–87°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KIND-20261026-TMAX-GE74 · opened 2026-10-19T07:33:14+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape