daily prop · Indianapolis, IN · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Mon Oct 26

Indianapolis runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Mon Oct 26

54¢

american -119 · decimal 1.84

on the tape

75°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 75°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		83¢
wn2		80¢
icon		65¢
hres		62¢
eps		35¢
ndfd		28¢
nbm		20¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

64–65°F1¢

66–67°F3¢

68–69°F6¢

70–71°F11¢

72–73°F15¢

74–75°F18¢

76–77°F17¢

78–79°F13¢

80–81°F8¢

82–83°F4¢

84–85°F2¢

86–87°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KIND-20261026-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-19T11:20:57+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape