— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
98¢
eps
97¢
wn2
92¢
icon
66¢
hres
60¢
nbm
52¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F3¢
64–65°F6¢
66–67°F10¢
68–69°F14¢
70–71°F16¢
72–73°F16¢
74–75°F13¢
76–77°F9¢
78–79°F5¢
80–81°F3¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,387 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.601 vs climatology 8.75.
Receipts
prop id WP-KIND-20261027-TMAX-GE65 · opened 2026-10-20T10:53:43+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape