— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
85¢
wn2
83¢
hres
83¢
eps
69¢
nbm
53¢
icon
44¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F4¢
68–69°F13¢
70–71°F24¢
72–73°F28¢
74–75°F20¢
76–77°F8¢
78–79°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KJAX-20261019-TMAX-GE78 · opened 2026-10-12T07:47:57+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape