— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
90¢
aifs
86¢
icon
57¢
ndfd
56¢
hres
46¢
nbm
45¢
rrfs
31¢
eps
30¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F1¢
72–73°F6¢
74–75°F17¢
76–77°F28¢
78–79°F26¢
80–81°F15¢
82–83°F5¢
84–85°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KJAX-20261022-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-16T15:05:22+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape