— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
77¢
aifs
77¢
nbm
56¢
icon
56¢
ndfd
55¢
hres
36¢
eps
12¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F3¢
72–73°F11¢
74–75°F24¢
76–77°F30¢
78–79°F21¢
80–81°F9¢
82–83°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KJAX-20261023-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-16T13:28:12+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape