daily prop · Las Vegas, NV · West Coast & Southwest · settles Sat Oct 17

Las Vegas high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 17

settled · observed 76

whiplash on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 80°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop traded as high as 83¢ and busted; crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

hrrr		90¢
hres		56¢
ndfd		56¢
eps		44¢
nbm		41¢
rrfs		36¢
aifs		26¢
icon		25¢
wn2		13¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KLAS-20261017-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-11T03:45:30+00:00 · settled 2026-10-18T14:07:15+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape