— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
63¢
ndfd
59¢
rrfs
44¢
nbm
41¢
aifs
41¢
wn2
40¢
hrrr
39¢
eps
30¢
icon
14¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F5¢
76–77°F14¢
78–79°F25¢
80–81°F27¢
82–83°F18¢
84–85°F7¢
86–87°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,205 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.906 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KLAS-20261019-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-10-14T03:00:17+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape