— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
aifs
39¢
icon
26¢
nbm
24¢
hres
23¢
wn2
23¢
eps
4¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F2¢
74–75°F6¢
76–77°F16¢
78–79°F25¢
80–81°F26¢
82–83°F17¢
84–85°F7¢
86–87°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KLAS-20261019-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-13T04:16:37+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape