— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hrrr
99¢
rrfs
96¢
hres
88¢
eps
66¢
ndfd
56¢
nbm
55¢
aifs
51¢
wn2
43¢
icon
6¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F6¢
76–77°F16¢
78–79°F26¢
80–81°F26¢
82–83°F16¢
84–85°F6¢
86–87°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KLAS-20261021-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-18T14:56:13+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape