— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
55¢
eps
48¢
aifs
44¢
nbm
41¢
hres
33¢
icon
25¢
wn2
9¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F2¢
66–67°F8¢
68–69°F18¢
70–71°F26¢
72–73°F24¢
74–75°F14¢
76–77°F5¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KLAS-20261023-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-20T04:05:56+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape