— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
87¢
icon
74¢
hres
64¢
wn2
57¢
nbm
56¢
ndfd
54¢
eps
46¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F4¢
68–69°F8¢
70–71°F14¢
72–73°F19¢
74–75°F20¢
76–77°F16¢
78–79°F10¢
80–81°F5¢
82–83°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KLAS-20261025-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-19T04:31:39+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape