— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
86¢
aifs
66¢
ndfd
56¢
icon
53¢
hres
43¢
eps
37¢
nbm
32¢
rrfs
31¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F4¢
64–65°F15¢
66–67°F28¢
68–69°F29¢
70–71°F16¢
72–73°F5¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,459 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.516 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KLGA-20261020-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-10-14T03:45:23+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape