— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
86¢
aifs
74¢
hres
70¢
icon
69¢
nbm
56¢
ndfd
54¢
eps
51¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F4¢
62–63°F12¢
64–65°F23¢
66–67°F28¢
68–69°F21¢
70–71°F10¢
72–73°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,361 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.86.
Receipts
prop id WP-KLGA-20261022-TMAX-GE64 · opened 2026-10-18T04:13:36+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape