— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
10¢
ndfd
7¢
icon
5¢
nbm
3¢
hres
2¢
aifs
2¢
eps
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
52–53°F1¢
54–55°F3¢
56–57°F9¢
58–59°F18¢
60–61°F23¢
62–63°F22¢
64–65°F14¢
66–67°F6¢
68–69°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,312 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.165 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KLGA-20261023-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-16T14:19:37+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape