— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
83¢
aifs
80¢
icon
75¢
hres
58¢
nbm
55¢
ndfd
53¢
eps
37¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
54–55°F1¢
56–57°F4¢
58–59°F8¢
60–61°F14¢
62–63°F19¢
64–65°F19¢
66–67°F16¢
68–69°F10¢
70–71°F5¢
72–73°F2¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,214 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.858 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KLGA-20261025-TMAX-GE62 · opened 2026-10-19T04:30:14+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape