— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
eps
26¢
aifs
25¢
wn2
17¢
hres
14¢
nbm
13¢
icon
5¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F4¢
64–65°F11¢
66–67°F21¢
68–69°F25¢
70–71°F21¢
72–73°F11¢
74–75°F4¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,255 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.863.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMCI-20261019-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-12T07:48:31+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape