daily prop · Kansas City, MO · Plains & South Central · settles Mon Oct 19

Kansas City runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Mon Oct 19

2¢

american +6073 · decimal 61.73

on the tape

78°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 78°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

ndfd		16¢
icon		7¢
aifs		5¢
hres		3¢
nbm		1¢
wn2		1¢
eps		1¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

62–63°F2¢

64–65°F7¢

66–67°F16¢

68–69°F25¢

70–71°F25¢

72–73°F16¢

74–75°F7¢

76–77°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.

Receipts

prop id WP-KMCI-20261019-TMAX-GE78 · opened 2026-10-12T07:48:32+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape