— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
90¢
aifs
88¢
rrfs
76¢
hres
75¢
hrrr
67¢
eps
66¢
ndfd
56¢
icon
51¢
nbm
41¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F3¢
70–71°F13¢
72–73°F27¢
74–75°F30¢
76–77°F19¢
78–79°F6¢
80–81°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMCI-20261021-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-20T04:04:47+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape