— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
57¢
wn2
46¢
hres
34¢
rrfs
32¢
eps
27¢
icon
14¢
ndfd
13¢
hrrr
7¢
nbm
2¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F3¢
70–71°F13¢
72–73°F27¢
74–75°F30¢
76–77°F19¢
78–79°F6¢
80–81°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMCI-20261021-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-14T10:33:38+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape