daily prop · Kansas City, MO · Plains & South Central · settles Thu Oct 22

Kansas City runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Thu Oct 22

47¢

american +112 · decimal 2.12

on the tape

77°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 77°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		81¢
aifs		81¢
rrfs		62¢
hres		41¢
eps		36¢
icon		34¢
ndfd		33¢
nbm		22¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

68–69°F1¢

70–71°F4¢

72–73°F12¢

74–75°F22¢

76–77°F27¢

78–79°F20¢

80–81°F10¢

82–83°F3¢

84–85°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KMCI-20261022-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-15T11:39:28+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape