daily prop · Kansas City, MO · Plains & South Central · settles Fri Oct 23

Kansas City runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Fri Oct 23

61¢

american -159 · decimal 1.63

on the tape

77°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 77°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		83¢
aifs		79¢
hres		62¢
icon		59¢
ndfd		55¢
eps		43¢
nbm		33¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

70–71°F2¢

72–73°F8¢

74–75°F17¢

76–77°F24¢

78–79°F24¢

80–81°F16¢

82–83°F7¢

84–85°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KMCI-20261023-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-17T04:41:55+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape